The global population with Type 1 Diabetes could double by 2040. 

A new modelling study estimates 8.4 million individuals were living with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) globally in 2021, with an additional 3.7 million ‘missing people’ who would be alive with T1D if their mortality matched general population rates.

The model predicts between 13.5 - 17.4 million people will be living with T1D by 2040.

Despite historically being thought of as a disease with onset in childhood, in 2021 it was estimated that there were numerically more adults (316,000) diagnosed with T1D than children and adolescents (194,000).

The researchers behind the study say they hope that by making country-specific prevalence and mortality metrics publicly available as part of an open-source database for the T1D Index Project, health outcomes will be improved with universal health coverage and better surveillance.

“Given that prevalence of people with T1D is projected to increase in all countries to up to 17.5 million cases in 2040, our results provide a warning for substantial negative implications for societies and healthcare systems,” says the University of Sydney’s Professor Graham Ogle, one of the authors of the study.

“There is an opportunity to save millions of lives in the coming decades by raising the standard of care for T1D (including ensuring universal access to insulin and other essential supplies) and increasing awareness of the signs and symptoms of T1D to enable a 100 per cent rate of diagnosis in all countries. 

“Our model, which will be made available open-source, will make data on the burden of T1D widely accessible and serve as a platform for stakeholders to make improvements in T1D care and outcomes.”

Co-author Professor Dianna Magliano from Monash University says the findings have important implications for diagnosis, models of care, and peer support programs. 

“Such programs, in countries where they exist, are almost exclusively designed, and delivered for children and youth with T1D,” she said. 

“In addition, our findings emphasise the urgent need for enhanced surveillance and data collection on T1D incidence, prevalence, and mortality in adult populations - an area where data are especially scarce.”

The study is accessible here.